Illinois State head coach Brock Spack has taken his Redbirds to the FCS playoffs seven times, including two runner-up finishes. (Photo by GoRedbirds.com)
By Dan Verdun
If national analysts and their projections hold true, Illinois State will be the lone representative from the Land of Lincoln in the FCS playoffs.
A season after finishing as national runner-up, ISU head coach Brock Spack’s Redbirds possess a 7-2 overall record and are 3-2 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference.
However, Illinois State – ranked No. 8 in the American Football Coaches Association poll and No. 10 by Stats Perform – faces the challenge of playing three nationally ranked teams the next three Saturdays.
Prairie State Pigskin shares the postseason outlooks from three prominent national media members: Craig Haley, Stats Perform/The Analyst FCS Senior Editor; Sam Herder, formerly of Hero Sports, who hosts the FCS Daily Dose & MonDak Football Show; and Zack McKinnell, FCS Football Central on SI Senior Editor.
All three hold votes in FCS polls and for national awards.
At present, Haley is the most bullish on the Redbirds’ post-season outlook.
In his most recent playoff 24-team bracket projection, Haley has Illinois State as the No. 8 national seed, which means the Redbirds would receive a first-round bye. ISU would host the winner of UAlbany and ninth-seeded Tennessee Tech in round two.
The Redbirds cannot host a first-round game since the Illinois high school state championship games are Nov. 27-28 at Hancock Stadium, a situation that Spack has long supported. That agreement runs through 2027.
The Minneapolis-based Herder said Illinois State “has a great chance at the playoffs” but cautions “it is no gimme right now.”
“With games against three highly-ranked teams still to come, the Redbirds need to win at least one to feel good about making the bracket,” Herder said. “The non-D-I win (NAIA St. Francis) will be a factor, because the committee looks at the number of D-I wins as a metric.
“Illinois State will want to hit at least seven D-I wins to like its chances to get into the bracket, which would require one more win.”
McKinnell has similar views.
“If Illinois State loses those three games, I don’t think it deserves an at-large bid. At 7-5 overall, the Redbirds would only have six Division-I games,” McKinnell said. “It’s another important lesson to ADs that you better schedule for the postseason and stop scheduling non-Division I games. They also wouldn’t have a single signature FCS win, which means their resume at 7-5 would be among the weakest in the country.”
Ohio Valley ‘chaos’
Western Illinois (5-4, 3-1) is tied with two other teams – Southeast Missouri and Lindenwood – for first place in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Head coach Joe Davis’ Leathernecks lost, 40-30, to SEMO Oct. 17 in Macomb. WIU plays at rival Eastern Illinois (3-6, 2-2) Saturday, hosts Gardner-Webb (3-6, 2-2) Nov. 14 and visits Lindenwood (4-4, 3-1) Nov. 21 to round out the regular season.
“The OVC looks to be a one-bid league this year, and right now, it seems six of the eight still have hopes alive of earning that auto-bid. I liked SEMO’s chances, but after its decisive loss to Gardner-Webb (34-10), it opens the door for more chaos,” Herder said.
Haley projects Southeast Missouri as the OVC representative in his playoff bracket.
What about SIU?
Southern Illinois (4-5, 2-3) has three remaining games, two of which are on the road. After playing at Indiana State Saturday, the Salukis host fifth-ranked South Dakota State Nov. 14 and play at 11th-ranked North Dakota Nov. 21.
“Southern Illinois will have to win out to even have a chance to make the postseason,” McKinnell said. “I do think if they found a way to get to 7-5 with wins over South Dakota State and North Dakota to end the season, they would get an at-large bid.
“Unfortunately, I just don’t see how this team wins either of those games. Offensive inconsistency and questionable coaching has wasted a ton of talent on this team.”
Herder said: “SIU’s playoff chances are slim, but not impossible. At 4-5, the Salukis would need to win out. If they do, they would hit seven wins with two of those coming against highly-ranked South Dakota State and North Dakota. The committee would then have to take a look at a seven-win SIU team.”
Dan Verdun is a co-founder of Prairie State Pigskin. He has written four books: NIU Huskies Football, EIU Panthers Football, ISU Redbirds Football and SIU Salukis Football.
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