Playoff outlook for Illinois FCS teams looks ‘dicey,’ national analyst says

From left, SIU safety P.J. Jules, EIU running back M.J. Flowers and ISU receiver Daniel Sobkowicz are all hopeful of playoff berths for their respective teams. (Photos by SIUSalukis.com, DailyEasternNews.com, GoRedbirds.com)

By Dan Verdun

While three Illinois FCS teams appear to have playoff possibilities, a leading national analyst said the outlook is “dicey” for the trio.

Southern Illinois, Eastern Illinois and Illinois State enter the final week of the 2023 regular season with postseason aspirations, yet each faces obstacles other than their upcoming Saturday opponent.

“It’s dicey for all three. They all need to end with a win, of course,” said Craig Haley, Stats Perform/The Analyst FCS Senior Editor.

Earlier this season, Southern Illinois appeared to be on a solid path to the playoffs. Head coach Nick Hill’s Salukis jumped out to a 4-0 start, including a convincing win against FCS playoff contender Austin Peay (49-23) and an upset at FBS Northern Illinois (14-11).

Since then, the Salukis have been hit or miss. Then-unranked Youngstown State battered SIU, 31-3, Oct. 7, handing the Salukis their first loss.

SIU does have victories over Missouri Valley Football Conference bottom feeders Murray State (27-6) and Western Illinois (63-0). However, the Salukis lost to No. 1 South Dakota State (17-10), No. 9 South Dakota (14-7) and No. 12 North Dakota State (34-10). 

SIU (6-4 overall, 3-4 MVFC) hosts Indiana State — which won its first game of the season this past weekend — Saturday in Carbondale. 

Eastern Illinois, meanwhile, has been one of top turnaround teams in FCS. After winning only two games last fall, the Panthers are 7-3 overall and 3-2 in the Big South-OVC Association.

EIU, under second-year head coach Chris Wilkerson, has won three straight games heading into Saturday’s regular-season finale at Robert Morris.

Illinois State is 6-4 overall and 4-3 in the MVFC. 

Head coach Brock Spack’s Redbirds have won two straight league games. ISU ends its regular season Saturday at No. 13 North Dakota. On the flip side, Illinois State’s four MVFC wins are against the bottom four teams in the league standings — Western Illinois (0-10), Indiana State (1-9), Murray State (2-8) and Missouri State (4-6).

While Southern Illinois and Illinois State did not play each other this season during the MVFC season, Eastern Illinois defeated ISU, 14-13, in a Sept. 16 non-conference clash in Charleston.

A deeper dive

According to the latest MasseyRatings.com strength of schedule statistics, SIU faced the fifth-toughest slate of opponents in FCS. ISU was listed at No. 50, while EIU was No. 71.

Illinois State is one of four teams tied for fourth place in the MVFC standings. The others – Northern Iowa, North Dakota, Youngstown State and North Dakota State – are also vying for an at-large playoff invitation.

Defending national champion and top-ranked South Dakota State (10-0, 7-0) has clinched the MVFC’s automatic berth as regular-season champion. Fifth-ranked South Dakota (8-2, 6-1) will surely receive an at-large bid.

After losing to nationally ranked North Dakota State, Southern Illinois dropped to eighth in the 12-team Missouri Valley standings.

Eastern Illinois is tied for third place in the Big South-OVC. No. 19 UT-Martin (8-2, 5-1) holds down the league’s top spot but lost to second-place Gardner-Webb (6-4, 4-1). 

While UTM completes its regular season Saturday with a non-conference game at Samford, Gardner-Webb plays a league game with Charleston Southern. If the Runnin’ Bulldogs win, Gardner-Webb would claim the Big South-OVC title and the subsequent automatic bid by virtue of an October win against UT Martin.

Who has the best shot?

“Southern Illinois’ out-of-conference wins make it the strongest of the five 6-4 teams in the MVFC, but it has the worst conference record of the bunch, so it’s going to need some help, including a loss by Illinois State,” Haley said. “If the Redbirds get a big win at North Dakota, well, that would make for a nice three-game winning streak. But, hey, they lost to EIU. Yeah, it seems like these three teams are going in circles on getting a bid.”

HERO Sports Senior FCS Analyst Sam Herder agreed.

“SIU probably has the best shot with its FBS win and the Austin Peay win,” Herder said. “Illinois State has to beat North Dakota to have a shot, but an 8-3 EIU team would be above a 7-4 ISU team due to the head-to-head (result).”

EIU did not play Gardner-Webb and lost to then-No. 18 UT Martin, 28-27, on a failed two-point conversion Oct. 7 in Charleston. 

“Eastern Illinois at 8-3 sounds good, but it’s hard to imagine three teams from the Big South-OVC getting into the field, so a Gardner-Webb loss at home is required because UT Martin already owns the head-to-head win over the Panthers and at least a share of the conference title,” Haley said. 

Again, Herder agreed with his fellow national analyst’s assessment.

“It’s hard to see the (playoff) committee giving the Big South-OVC three bids, and it seems if Gardner-Webb gets the automatic qualifier, UTM has the best shot for an at-large,” he said.

Brian McLaughlin, a Group of 5 and FCS writer from FanBuzz.com, released his latest playoff projections Monday.

McLaughlin listed Southern Illinois, along with Western Carolina and Incarnate Word, among the last three teams to qualify for the FCS postseason bracket.

McLaughlin tabbed Eastern Illinois and Illinois State as two of five “close to in” programs.

Like Haley, Herder said SIU, EIU and ISU are on uneven ground as far as playoff berths go.

“A lot of other results need to go these teams’ way to make room on the bubble,” Herder said, citing, “Northern Iowa losing, Howard losing so North Carolina Central gets the MEAC berth into the Celebration Bowl (along with) Western Carolina losing and Incarnate Word not getting an at-large bid.”

While all of this is more than enough to make any fan’s head spin, it will all be played out on the fields Saturday and then be finalized when the NCAA announces the 24-team playoff field at 11:30 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 19 on ESPNU.

Dan Verdun is a co-founder of Prairie State Pigskin. He has written four books: NIU Huskies Football, EIU Panthers Football, ISU Redbirds Football and SIU Salukis Football.

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