Nationally ranked Southern Illinois appears a strong bet to make the FCS playoff field. (Photo by SIUSalukis.com)
By Dan Verdun
As the college football season enters its regular season final stretch, a pair of Illinois-based FCS teams face strong challenges along their paths to potential postseason play.
Southern Illinois and Illinois State – both 2-2 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference standings – remain steadfast in their quest to be included in the 24-team FCS playoff bracket.
SIU (5-2) is ranked No. 11 in this week’s Stats Perform FCS Top 25 poll and No. 12 in the American Football Coaches Association poll. The Salukis lost, 17-10, to top-ranked South Dakota State Saturday in Carbondale.
“All of our goals are still ahead of us,” SIU head coach Nick Hill during his Monday media address.
Illinois State (4-3) lost, 41-38, on a last-second field goal at Youngstown State. The defeat knocked the Redbirds out of the No. 25 position in the AFCA poll.
“We’re still in the playoff hunt. We have to win every game just to make sure,” ISU receiver Daniel Sobkowicz told WJBC Radio following the loss.
Senior defensive lineman Josh Dinga said the team’s goals are “still in front of us.”
“We just have to take it week by week. Next week is the only game we’re focusing on, and we’ve gotta win,” he said.
The road ahead
The Salukis and Redbirds, which do not play each other this season, have four games remaining on their respective schedules.
The Salukis visit Western Illinois (0-7) Saturday, host No. 4 South Dakota (6-1) Nov. 4, visit No. 12 North Dakota State (5-2) Nov. 11 and host Indiana State (0-7) Nov. 18.
“There’s a lot to be proud of for this team and where we can go and what we do down the stretch. The next four games will determine the story of this team,” Hill said.
The Redbirds host No. 23 Northern Iowa (4-3) Saturday, visit Missouri State (3-4) Nov. 4, host Murray State (2-5) Nov. 11 and visit No. 17 North Dakota (4-3) Nov. 18.
“It’s one game at a time,” ISU head coach Brock Spack said.
The national perspective
Sam Herder is senior FCS analyst for HERO Sports. He is also a Top 25 voter.
“The MVFC looks like it could have several 7- and 8-win teams,” Herder told Prairie State Pigskin. “Beating either South Dakota or North Dakota State, plus beating both WIU and Indiana State, will be huge for SIU to hit eight wins.
“If they lose both, they have seven wins but (with) a (31-3) loss to Youngstown, who also may be at seven wins. That head-to-head could be the difference-maker on who’s in between those two if they both finish 7-4.”
Herder said Illinois State’s path to seven wins is tough as well.
“This week’s game versus UNI is huge for both to hit five wins,” he said. “A road game at North Dakota to end the regular season will be a challenge for ISU.
“Winning out certainly gets ISU in at eight wins. But at seven wins, and let’s say a loss at UND and a win over UNI, that’s seven wins but a head-to-head loss to YSU.”
Again, as with Southern Illinois, that earlier loss at Youngstown State could spell doom for Illinois State.
Kevin Marshall, radio host of FCS Nation, has covered the national scene for a decade and a half.
“The Salukis are a team that if they could just be consistent, they’d be super-duper good,” Marshall told Prairie State Pigskin. “They just can’t seem to play well (in all phases) every week.”
That stated, Marshall said SIU “is a playoff team.” He has been particularly impressed by the Saluki defense.
“They’ve got some dudes in the secondary,” he said. “(Safety) P.J. Jules is as good as anyone in the country. They’re smaller (on the defensive line) than a (Missouri) Valley team usually is up front, but they’re also quicker than a Valley team usually is.”
Marshall also makes a playoff case for Illinois State.
“When you look at where they are now, it looks pretty good,” he said. “I like Brock Spack as a coach a lot. It just seems like they’ve been a quarterback away for half a decade now. The fact they put up as many points as they did last week, if you had told Illinois State it would score 38 points before the game, they’d like their chances most weeks.”
Quarterback Zack Annexstad – a transfer from FBS Minnesota in his second year at ISU – ranks 26th nationally in passing efficiency. The senior has thrown for 14 touchdowns and only been intercepted four times.
“It wouldn’t shock me if they were right there at the end,” Marshall said of the Redbirds.
Marshall also believes strongly that MVFC teams should get playoff bids over schools from lesser conferences.
“When you’ve got people playing in North America who are ranked in the Top 10, like Incarnate Word (6-1), and they play in the Southland (Conference) where there isn’t a good team in that entire league, I think you have to look at that with a grain of salt,” he said.
Eight is enough
Circling back, eight wins appears to be the magic number for a postseason berth.
“The key for any team is really to hit eight wins and you’re feeling decent (about your playoff chances),” Herder said. “At seven wins, you’re in a big pool of other seven-win teams and are nervous on Selection Sunday.”
Marshall agreed.
“There’s going to be a lot of seven-win teams left out this year,” he said. “But I don’t know how many of those seven-win teams will be left out from the Valley. They (SIU and ISU) have that going for them, that’s for sure.”
Marshall added ISU “is more than capable of winning those four (remaining) games” to raise its record to 8-3.
Analytics angle
The Twitter/X-based @RedHerringBets began posting “analytics-based FCS coverage” in Sept. 2022.
Each week, it publishes an “FCS playoff predictor,” which uses a model simulation to determine “the odds of an at-large bid based on the (selection) committee’s past behavior” adding that “records, conference, strength of schedule and head-to-head results” are used as factors.
Following this week’s game results, @RedHerringBets tweeted these numbers for the Missouri Valley, which includes SIU, ISU and Western Illinois.
@RedHerringBets also posted the other 11 FCS conferences, including the Big South-Ohio Valley Alliance, which Eastern Illinois (5-3, 1-2) is a member.
Erik Pitzer has operated the website NoBowls.com since 2008. According to his website, Pitzer has accurately predicted 226 of the 240 teams selected to participate in the FCS postseason.
“With so many variables still at play in the final four weeks, I think the best indicator for all Missouri Valley teams is that 7-4 record,” Pitzer said. “If you get to that mark, or better, you should feel pretty safe about a playoff bid.
“(A) 6-5 (record) is most likely on the outside looking in. Illinois State really needs to find three quality wins in their home stretch. The Salukis should feel good if they win any two of their last four.”
The Division I Football Championship Committee will release its FCS Top 10 during the College Football Live broadcast at 1 p.m. CT Thursday on ESPN2. This will serve as a snapshot as to where the committee has teams ranked heading into the final four weeks of the regular season.
Dan Verdun is a co-founder of Prairie State Pigskin. He has written four books: NIU Huskies Football, EIU Panthers Football, ISU Redbirds Football and SIU Salukis Football.
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